A mass shooting in a disputed territory has set off a chain reaction that could lead to the first armed fighting between India and Pakistan since 1999.
What happened: This week, India suspended participation in the Indus Waters Treaty, which governs water sharing with Pakistan. It’s part of a broader pullback of diplomatic ties with its neighbour in response to an attack that killed 26 Indian tourists in the disputed Jammu and Kashmir territory on Tuesday.
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An Islamic militant group called the Resistance Front, which India says has links to Pakistan’s military, claimed responsibility.
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Pakistan denies any links, and some Pakistani military analysts and officials have pointed the finger back at India, accusing the government of staging the attack.
Catch-up: As one analyst told the Financial Times, the water treaty has been a “safety net” between the feuding nations, surviving two past wars. It’s also vital for Pakistani farmers already combating drought and low rainfall. Freezing it represents a major escalation.
Why it matters: Pakistan has said it will consider any diversion of shared river waters “an act of war” and will suspend a 1972 peace treaty with India. An armed conflict is now a real possibility — an especially concerning development as both sides have nuclear weapons.
What’s next: Indian and Pakistani troops have already briefly exchanged fire across the Kashmiri border. However, some officials have faith that cooler heads will prevail.—QH