Global attempts to ween off oil seemingly haven’t bothered Alberta’s oilsands.
Driving the news: An annual report by the province’s energy regulator projects that oil and gas production will continue growing through 2033, with oil prices rising alongside it. Output from the oilsands is on pace to grow by over 17% by 2033 compared to 2023.
- The report comes amid other studies positing when demand for oil might peak. The International Energy Agency predicts it’ll be in 2029, while Goldman Sachs predicts 2034.
- The oilsands are a huge part of Canada’s energy sector — and, in turn, a significant part of Canada’s GDP — accounting for 66% of Canadian oil equivalent production last year.
Why it matters: Alberta’s oilsands are primed to thrive as operating costs decline and the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion (TMX) nearly triples Alberta’s export capacity to the West Coast.
- Thanks to the TMX, California and Washington are set to import ~150,000 barrels a day of Canadian crude by tanker this month, seven times more than average levels.
Yes, but: It’s no secret that the oilsands are carbon-intensive, with recent research implying they spew even more carbon than initially thought. Squaring production increases with federal emissions reduction goals could be impossible.—QH