The near-term future of Canadian grain exports is looking a little, well, grainy.
What happened: Union workers at six Port of Vancouver grain terminals hit the picket line yesterday, the result of broken-down negotiations with their employer for a new contract. Until the issue is resolved, the grains won’t be going anywhere, despite it being harvest time.
- Workers have been without a new deal since the end of 2023. While both sides are reportedly aligned on pay rates, staunch disagreements remain over benefits and paid days off.
Why it matters: The strikes have the potential to seriously stifle the flow of Canadian grain, as over half of all Canadian-grown grains moved through these terminals last year. Per the Grain Growers of Canada, the stoppages will lead to ~$35 million in lost exports per day.
- The situation is especially pressing for canola growers, who are motivated to export as much canola as possible to China, their top buyer, ahead of potential new tariffs.
Bottom line: One analyst told Reuters the strike won’t really start affecting the markets until three to four weeks in. Hope remains that a deal will be hammered out well before then, as the talks resume with a federal mediator in tow.—QH