A new report confirms what we already kinda knew about the feds’ carbon cutting goals: they bit off more than they could chew.
What happened: The Canadian Climate Institute (CCI) released its annual emissions report for 2024 and, for the first time since Ottawa set its carbon reduction targets, concluded that Canada won’t reach its 2030 goal of cutting emissions by 40% to 45% below 2005 levels.
- CCI’s estimates, which come out a few months before official federal numbers, found that carbon emissions were 8.5% lower than 2005 levels, the same as 2023.
- A marked increase in oil and gas production, with emissions from the sector jumping by 1.9% last year, stalled further progress.
Big picture: The big reason for the CCI’s pessimism is recent policy changes, both federal and provincial, that will claw back carbon-cutting progress. Changes include ending the consumer carbon tax, pausing EV rebates, and Saskatchewan keeping coal plants alive.
- Plus, exports from new liquefied natural gas projects will also generate more carbon emissions. As would future oil pipeline projects, which are still under consideration.
Why it matters: These decisions aren’t results of malice or negligence; they’re meant to promote economic growth and energy security. With the Liberal government reportedly cooking up a new climate strategy, the challenge will be balancing opposing objectives.—QH