A tiny European nation that we couldn’t point out on a map has become a powder keg of geopolitical intrigue.
Catch-up: This summer, the European Union officially began accession negotiations with Moldova, with the country aiming to join the bloc by 2030. The country set up a national referendum on whether or not to amend the constitution to prevent future governments from scuttling plans to join the EU. Moldovans will vote in this referendum on October 20.
- Moldovans will also vote in the presidential elections on that same date, with the incumbent pro-EU President Maia Sandu fighting to secure another term.
Driving the news: Now, Moldovan officials allege Russia has interfered with its referendum and election by bribing over 130,000 Moldovans — out of a population of just ~2.5 million — to vote against the constitutional amendment and vote in favour of pro-Russia candidates.
- Russian agents have also been accused by domestic and international officials — including those from Canada — of running disinfo campaigns around the election.
Why it matters: Situated right between Ukraine and EU-member Romania, both Russia and the West have a vested interest in keeping Moldova in their respective spheres of influence. The outcome of this referendum could be a lethal blow to Russia’s long-standing sway in the country.
Zoom out: There is already one Russia-backed breakaway state in Moldova, Transdniestria, which analysts believe Russian forces would have entered had they captured Kyiv. Fears abound that the region of Gagauzia could become the next pro-Russia defector.—QH