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Are incumbent leaders doomed to fail?

Nov 9, 2024

Are incumbent leaders doomed to fail?

Germany’s leader could soon be on the electoral chopping block. 

What happened: Germany could be the next country to oust its leader after Chancellor Olaf Scholz blew up the country’s ruling coalition due to disagreements on how to revive the nation’s struggling economy. Germany’s GDP is on track to shrink for a second straight year. 

  • Since 2021, Scholz has headed up Germany with a three-party coalition made up of his left-leaning SDP, the centrist FDP, and the environmentalist Greens.

  • This week, Scholz fired his finance minister and FDP leader Christian Lindner and will call for a confidence vote in January, though he is facing pressure to call it earlier.

Why it matters: Losing the vote would set up a March election, in which the centre-right CDU is expected to win, continuing a global trend of incumbent candidates getting trounced. 

Big picture: In all of the 10 largest developed countries that held national elections this year, including the U.S., the U.K., and France, the party in power saw a lower share of the vote compared to the election before — a first in the nearly 120 years since the data started being recorded. 

Bottom line: It seems voters nearly everywhere are tired of the status quo and want to send their ruling parties packing. Canadians, who head to the polls next year, look no different.—QH

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