Early in his prime ministership, Mark Carney called Canada the ”most European of non-European countries.” Some commentators saw this observation as his first real gaffe, but since then, Canada has forged deeper ties with Europe as its relationship with the U.S. continues to destabilize. Ottawa has inked a new security partnership with the EU, enhanced its trade deal with the bloc, and joined a European defence fund. Carney is also pursuing a spot for Canada in the Eurovision song contest. Heck, even spelling on government documents is looking more European these days.
A radical idea has even started to gain some traction: Canada should join the European Union. The argument goes that Canada would reap the benefits of EU membership including free trade with a major economic bloc while reducing our dependence on the U.S. While Carney has dismissed the idea, for some fans of ‘values-based internationalism,’ it isn’t just a flight of fancy. For example, Augusto Lopez-Claros, executive director of the Global Governance Forum, has argued forcefully for the marriage, writing that “Canada already behaves like a de facto member of the club in all but name.” He believes that Canadian membership “would immediately expand the EU’s global footprint and underscore its identity as a values-based institutional order rather than a regional bloc.”
A modicum of everyday Canadians also appear to be receptive to the idea. A recent Abacus Data survey of 1,915 Canadian adults found that 48% were in favour of joining the EU, compared to 28% who opposed membership. That number goes up to 63% for respondents who also said they approve of the Carney government.
But can Canada even join the EU? Under current conditions, no. Per Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union, any potential member must “be a European state.” This definition is a little malleable — for example, Turkey has been under consideration for over 20 years despite the fact that most of its landmass is technically located in Asia — but it couldn’t be stretched to cover Canada. The only border we share with a European state is the 1.28 km land border with Denmark on Hans Island, which was drawn up in 2022 to end a 50-year territorial dispute. (If you want to push it, we suppose you could point to the tiny French archipelago of Saint Pierre and Miquelon off Newfoundland’s coast.)
However, if the political will was there, then there technically could be another path. The Treaty can be amended through processes under Article 48. It wouldn’t be a walk in the park. First, a member state, the European Parliament, or the European Commission would have to propose an amendment to Article 49 to allow the accession of non-European states. From there, the European Council must agree to examine the proposals and hold a convention of various bloc VIPs, who would work to produce a recommended set of amendments.
These recommendations would then be discussed at a conference of all member state governments, which must also come to a consensus on them. If this miraculously happens, the states must unanimously ratify the proposed changes through their own procedures, which could potentially include multiple national referendums. Only then would the amendment come into effect.
And even if all that happened, there’s still the accession process. The EU is harder to get into than the Berghain, with more steps than an Ikea instruction manual. Especially now as more EU parliamentarians are wary of further enlargement (you can blame this on Hungary). But, hypothetically, it would start with Canada submitting an application — an action that itself would likely require a national referendum — to the Council of the EU, which would then seek the opinions of the European Commission. If the Commission says, ‘sure, they seem cool,’ the Council would then grant Canada “candidate” status.
From there, Canada would have to work its way through 35 policy areas — called “chapters” — to ensure its laws and policies meet, or will meet, EU standards. A few examples include company law, energy, and defence policy. Since Canada is a strong liberal democracy with many policies aligned with the EU, it’s already closer than a lot of EU candidates. But major changes would still need to be made including, but not limited to: enacting a maximum 48-hour workweek, aligning environmental regulations, adopting EU tariffs, and recognizing the supremacy of the European Court of Justice. Eventually, we’d also need to allow free movement into Canada of any Europeans and, in all likelihood, adopt the euro.
After the chapters are dealt with, an accession treaty is drafted that must be unanimously approved by the Council of the EU, ok’d by the European Parliament, and unanimously approved by the existing member states. Once again, as with the amendment process, final ratification would involve states carrying out their own national procedures.
To put it succinctly, the whole process would be long, arduous, costly, and likely a total gong show.
Bottom line: “Canada is inescapably North American,” Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group's Global Macro practice, told The Peak. “Its largest trading partner — for good and ill — will remain the United States. Instead of indulging in Euro-fantasies, Ottawa is rightly focused on practical steps to improve Canada’s position at home and abroad. None of those include joining the EU.”—QH