Deep freeze

Earnings to watch: Tech earnings season gets underway this week, with Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Tesla all reporting. In Canada, Rogers, CN Railway, and Metro are slated to report their results.

It wasn’t just large swaths of the country getting snowed in this weekend — the relationship between Ottawa and the White House also went back into deep freeze.

What happened: Donald Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on “all Canadian goods and products” if “Canada makes a deal with China,” and later suggested he would stop a Chinese “takeover” of Canada. Trump also referred to Mark Carney as  “governor” for the first time, hauling that old chestnut out of storage.

Elsewhere: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent blasted Carney over the China agreement, saying, “We can’t let Canada become an opening that the Chinese pour their cheap goods into the U.S.”

Why it matters: Canada is back in the crosshairs of the Trump administration, and the escalation over the weekend is a preview of what’s to come as CUSMA comes up for renegotiation. 

Our take: Unfortunately, the threat of ripping up CUSMA — which has so far kept most of our exports to the U.S. tariff-free — gives the Americans enormous leverage over Canada. Preserving that deal with a volatile administration in the White House while also expanding trade with other large economies, like China’s, will be a dangerous high-wire balancing act.—TS

ICE protests continue in Minneapolis. Protesters took to the streets on Sunday following the killing of a 37-year-old man by a federal immigration officer, the second fatal ICE shooting in Minneapolis in just two weeks. Federal officials claimed the man, Alex Pretti, violently instigated the incident, but video analysis of the shooting contradicted that story. (Reuters)

The GST credit is going up. The federal government is set to announce that GST credit payments will increase by 25% over the next five years, beginning in July, along with a one-time payment in June. Together, the benefits could amount to around $800 for a family with two kids. (Toronto Star, paywalled)

Google’s AI overviews have a soft spot for YouTube. A new study found that Google’s AI overview tool, which is used by over 2 billion people a month, cites Alphabet-owned YouTube more than any medical site or journal when asked health-related questions. (The Guardian)

It’s snowing heavily and very cold. Weather alerts for cold temperatures and heavy snow were issued for much of the country, and large numbers of flights from airports in Toronto and Montreal were cancelled. Meanwhile, in the U.S., snowstorms caused over 10,000 flights to be cancelled, the most cancellations in a single day since the start of the pandemic. (CTV News)

Berkshire Hathaway could be punting on its Kraft Heinz stake. New Berkshire CEO and Alberta native, Greg Abel, is reportedly looking to offload “up to” its entire 27.5% stake in the food giant. Kraft and Heinz merged back in 2015 in a deal championed by Warren Buffett, but the company has underperformed mightily in recent years and is currently in the process of being split up. (CNBC)

Apple’s new version of Siri is reportedly coming next month. The Google Gemini-powered assistant is set to be unveiled in the second half of February. It will be the first of the AI features Apple promised in 2024 to be released. (TechCrunch)—LA

🏦 Interest rate decisions in Canada, U.S. Both the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the U.S. Federal Reserve are expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said last month that the BoC would hold rates at 2.25% so long as inflation continued to stabilize, and that’s more or less what has happened since. There is more pressure for the Fed to cut rates, both from the Trump administration and some FOMC members, but Jerome Powell hasn’t shown much appetite to indulge demands from those quarters.

🇨🇦 Conservative Party convention. Pierre Poilievre faces a leadership review at his party’s convention later this week, with around 4,000 delegates voting on whether he should stay on as leader. Poilievre only needs the support of a majority of delegates to keep the job, but a close vote would certainly weaken his position. That’s a possible outcome, but without any obvious successor waiting in the wings, it would be a surprise. 

🇺🇸 U.S. government shutdown deadline. The U.S. federal government could partially shut down (again) if a spending package isn’t approved by Friday. Odds of a shutdown increased dramatically (now around 75% on prediction markets) after a man was shot and killed by a U.S. Border Patrol agent in Minneapolis over the weekend. Democrats responded by promising to block any bill that includes funding for the Department of Homeland Security without reforms to the agency.

It turns out, parents will pay a lot of money to watch their nine-year-old's soccer game on TV.

Driving the news: Montreal-based live sports streamer LiveBarn has been acquired by U.S. private equity (PE) firm GTCR for ~US$400 million, the latest in a string of PE buyouts in the youth sports space. 

Why it matters: Youth sports have evolved from a primarily non-profit-run space to become a US$40 billion a year industry, larger than the recorded music, box office, and sports betting sectors. 

Our take: Canadian families already spend an average of over $3,000 a year on their kids' athletic endeavours. As private equity continues to move into the space, the goal of maximizing profits could make youth sports less accessible for Canadians.—LA

🪖 ~13%. Increase in applications for the Canadian Armed Forces so far this fiscal year, a major reversal after years of the military missing its recruitment targets. About 6,700 new members joined the military in 2025, the highest total of any year in the past decade.

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