Good morning. A couple in the U.K. have won United Kingdom’s National Lottery for a second time. The odds of hitting the jackpot twice? One in 24 trillion. Good for them, I suppose, but stories like this make us a lot more nervous about scientists trying to reassure us that some asteroid has “only” a one-in-43 chance of hitting Earth.
Today’s reading time is 5 minutes.
MARKETS
| ▲ | TSX |
31,755.77 |
+1.00% |
|
| ▲ | S&P 500 |
6,834.5 |
+0.88% |
|
| ▲ | DOW JONES |
48,134.89 |
+0.38% |
|
| ▲ | NASDAQ |
23,307.62 |
+1.31% |
|
| ▲ | GOLD |
4,387.3 |
+0.52% |
|
| ▲ | OIL |
56.52 |
+0.93% |
|
| ▼ | CAD/USD |
0.73 |
-0.13% |
|
| ▼ | BTC/USD |
88,132.65 |
-0.05% |
Earnings to watch: It’s all quiet on the earnings front this week. The first major earnings calls won’t pick up until the second week of the new year, with U.S. banks expected to report starting on January 13.
CRIME
American guns are fueling Canadian crime
Source: Alberta RCMP.
Lax U.S. gun laws are flooding Canada’s black market for firearms.
Driving the news: A surge in gun-related crimes across Canada can be traced to a spike in the number of firearms being smuggled across the U.S. border, according to a New York Times analysis.
In Ontario, 91% of handguns recovered from crimes last year came in illegally from the U.S.
Smugglers bring guns in on drones, boats, and have even used a library on the border of Quebec and Vermont as a drop location. Police say U.S. firearms are selling on the Canadian black market for as much as eight times their value.
Why it matters: The influx of American firearms has coincided with a rise in gun violence across the country. The frequency of gun-related deaths in Canada has jumped ~90% over the past decade, even after adjusting for population growth.
Canada’s overall homicide rate has started to fall in the past couple of years after spiking during the pandemic, but is still above the average of the past 25 years.
Bottom line: The effectiveness of Canada’s relatively strict gun control laws will always be limited if large numbers of illegal guns can be easily smuggled into the country from the U.S.—LA
BIG PICTURE
Source: Shutterstock.
Federal workers will be met with job cuts after the holidays. It could be a rude start to the new year for some public servants: many federal departments have informed workers that thousands of positions will be eliminated in January. Ottawa has committed to cutting the number of government workers by ~40,000 from a peak of 368,000 in 2023-24. (The Canadian Press)
Netflix wants to take over family game night. The streamer is buying virtual avatar company Ready Player Me as part of its push to build interactive TV games that can be played in groups. There will reportedly be a video game spin-off of the Knives Out series, where players have to solve mysteries. Kids these days will never know that’s basically just a digital version of Clue. (The Verge)
The NBA is changing its policies in response to gambling scandals. The league wants to reduce the value of inside information, discourage tanking — when teams intentionally lose to improve their draft picks — and limit prop bets, which allow people to bet on niche aspects of individual players’ performance. (ESPN)
Quebec is selling the old Northvolt battery plant land for $351 million. The province took possession of the land after the Swedish battery maker was deemed insolvent by a Quebec court. The sale will help recoup some of the $510 million the province invested in the now-bankrupt company. (The Logic)
The U.S. seized another tanker carrying Venezuelan oil. (BBC)
China’s HSG bought Golden Goose for €2.5 billion. The Italian luxury brand, famous for its US$500 sneakers, was previously owned by PE firm Permira. (Bloomberg)
LOOKOUT
What’s happening next year
Source: Shutterstock.
This is our last Lookout for the year and, frankly, there’s not much going on this week (aside from the new GDP report tomorrow), so let’s expand our horizons and look to what’s on the docket for 2026:
A new Federal Reserve chair is likely to be appointed sometime in January.
The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on tariffs in January, as well.
The Winter Olympics begin in Milan in February.
Artemis II, the first crewed mission to the vicinity of the moon since 1972, could happen anytime after February 5.
China’s new Five-Year Plan will be announced in March.
The deadline to renew CUSMA is July 1.
The FIFA World Cup hosted by Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. runs from June 11 to July 19.
Quebec’s provincial election is scheduled for October 5.
U.S. midterm elections are on November 7.
Elections are expected in Thailand, Portugal, Peru, Colombia, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Denmark, Israel, Sweden, Brazil, and New Zealand.
BUSINESS
Fines set to surge for money laundering crimes
Source: Shutterstock.
One of Canada’s 2026 resolutions is to crack down on money laundering, and this year they’re actually going to do it for real, okay?
What happened: The fines levied against companies that fail to follow anti-money laundering rules are set to rise to as much as 40 times their current levels.
The heftier fines are being introduced as part of Bill C-12, which also includes measures to expand the powers of border agents and other law enforcement agencies.
Why it’s happening: Fintrac, Canada’s financial crimes watchdog, has been hobbled by the relatively paltry penalties it’s able to impose — not enough to make large financial institutions beef up enforcement. The hope is that will change if they’re faced with the threat of dramatically higher fines.
Why it matters: As much as $130 billion of dirty money flows through Canada’s financial system every year, and the country has earned a global reputation for its lax attitude towards money laundering.
Yes, but: Some experts say that even if banks flag more suspicious transactions to avoid fines, the enforcement infrastructure to investigate those reports and punish lawbreakers still doesn’t exist.—TS
ONE BIG NUMBER
🩺 38%. Share of Canadian doctors who report feeling burnt out, second-highest of the ten developed countries assessed in a recent study. U.S. doctors reported the highest burnout rate (43%), while doctors in the Netherlands reported the least burnout (11%).
PEAK PICKS
Most holiday gifts end up in a drawer. Felix Longevity extends your healthspan: biological age testing with prescription treatment delivered to your door. Actually worth it.*
Advice on how to best enjoy the holidays with your family, according to mental health experts.
You can now adjust how excited ChatGPT is to be talking to you.
Watch: Breaking down the ultra-rich's new obsession.
Why collecting passport stamps has become a dying art.
Tips for dealing with bosses who always think they know best (Wall Street Journal, paywalled)
A chef’s trick to timing your Christmas dinner.
*This is sponsored content.
