From Caracas to Calgary

Good morning. We are rested, recharged, and back operating at full tilt here at Peak HQ. If you’re just getting back into the swing of things, you could ease in gently with our brief roundup of stories you may have missed over the holidays before knocking out a quick mini-crossword. 

Or just tear off the band-aid and keep on scrolling into the thick of it with today’s top story, which is a heck of a way to begin the new year. To each their own. 

—Taylor Scollon

Today’s reading time is 6 minutes.

Earnings this week: We’ll be watching earnings from Canadian fashion powerhouse Aritzia on Thursday. Its stock price more than doubled in the past year as it began to expand into the U.S.

Depending on how things play out, Canada may find itself worse off after the U.S. military operation to capture Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro.

Catch up: U.S. forces seized Maduro and his wife in a raid over the weekend and transported them to New York to face drug and terrorism charges.

Why it matters: Canadian oil — the country’s largest and most valuable export — would face stiff competition from a revitalized Venezuelan oil industry, particularly in the U.S. market.

Yes, but: After years of neglect, Venezuela won’t be able to flip a switch and start exporting large amounts of oil again. By one estimate, it will take Venezuela a minimum of two to three years and almost US$10 billion of investment to return to pre-sanctions production of 2 million barrels per day — still well below what Canada currently sells to the U.S. 

Our take: The Trump administration barely bothered to disguise that they toppled Maduro to open up Venezuela’s oil market to American companies. Whether the strategy works or not, it’s a loud and clear message that the U.S. wants to find new places to buy its crude. Canada will need to find new places to sell ours. —TS

BYD overtook Tesla as the world’s biggest seller of EVs. The Chinese automaker sold 2.25 million EVs last year compared to Tesla’s 1.64 million. And the trends aren’t encouraging for Tesla, either: Its sales fell 9% in 2025 while BYD’s rose 28%. (BBC)

Violators of new foreign influence rules could face fines of $1 million. As part of the new rules, people and organizations will have to disclose any agreements with “foreign principals” to influence Canadian policy. Fines for violating the rules will range from $50 to $1 million — quite the range! (CBC)

North Korea launched missiles as South Korea’s president visited China. The missiles were launched from Pyongyang and landed in the sea off the country’s coast. South Korea’s President Lee Jae-Myung began a state visit to China yesterday and was expected to discuss peace on the Korean peninsula with Chinese leaders. (CNN)

A Canadian woman was charged with crossing into the U.S. and kicking a border guard in the face. The defendant was allegedly denied entry at the Peace Arch border crossing because she had a marijuana vape pen. Not sure this is what was meant by “elbows up.” (Global News)

It doesn’t look like Milan’s Olympic hockey arena is going to be finished in time for the games. “A test event is scheduled for Jan. 9-11. On Saturday, it wasn’t clear how players, never mind crowds, would find their way inside.” (CBC)

The wife of top Donald Trump aide Stephen Miller posted a map of Greenland covered by the American flag, along with the caption “SOON.” Denmark filed an official protest. (CBS News)

First jobs report of the year. Forecasters are expecting Friday’s labour market report to show employment falling and the unemployment rate ticking up. But the job market has been hot lately, and mostly defied doom-and-gloom predictions. Maybe this time the gloomy forecasts will be right. In any case, it would take  something truly shocking in Friday’s numbers to push the Bank of Canada off its stand-pat position on interest rates before their next decision later this month.

Ontario public servants return to office. Another hybrid work arrangement bites the dust this week as around 30,000 public servants in Ontario will return to the office full-time. They don’t seem pleased about it, and the province isn’t sure there will be enough office space for them, but downtown businesses will likely get a shot in the arm. Public servants in Alberta will have to return to office full-time in February, and some other provinces are revisiting their hybrid work policies.

World Juniors wrap. The final games of the World Junior Ice Hockey Championship will be played today in Minneapolis. Canada will face Finland in the bronze medal game after losing to Czechia last night.

Other storylines we’re watching this week: 

It’s been almost a full year since DeepSeek sent the AI industry and tech stocks into a tizzy with the release of its low-cost, high-performance R1 model. Now the Chinese tech company says it has a new trick up its sleeve. 

What happened: DeepSeek published a research paper describing a new way to train high-performance AI models more cost effectively than traditional methods, a technique one AI researcher described as a “striking breakthrough.”

Why it matters: Another “DeepSeek moment” that shocks markets may be brewing. 

Yes, but: Tech stocks recovered (and then some) after the last DeepSeek moment as investors bought into the argument that cheaper AI would expand the demand for AI rather than lowering its cost. If that narrative holds, markets may not be rattled again by DeepSeek’s innovations.

✝️ 5.5%. The annualized profit earned by some Polymarket bettors who wagered that Jesus Christ would not return by the end of 2025. At one point in April, users had bid up the “Yes” side of the market to 3%, giving bettors on the “No” side the chance to lock in a healthy return. 

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And now it’s time to play. Here is today’s mini-crossword and the sudoku.