It’s not what you might expect in the middle of a trade war, but the latest jobs numbers from StatCan are something to smile about.
What happened: Canada’s unemployment rate fell to a 16-month low and the economy added 54,000 jobs in November, beating analyst expectations. That brings the total job gains over the past three months to 181,000.
That works out to 725,000 jobs annualized, which Scotiabank points out would be the largest gain (outside of the immediate post-pandemic recovery) since StatCan started publishing the Labour Force Survey in the 1970s.
Why it matters: The stronger Canada’s economy is, the better a negotiating position it will be in when it sits down across the table from the U.S. to hammer out a trade deal — something that will likely happen next year, as the White House signals it’s considering pulling out of CUSMA.
Yes, but: Don’t pop the bubbly just yet. Brendon Bernard, senior economist at Indeed, told The Peak there are some below-the-surface signs that give him pause. Among his yellow flags: the fact that total hours worked have been flat for a few months, and that the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH), Canada’s other main jobs report, hasn’t looked as positive.—TS