From soap opera bans to secret phone calls, a dispute between Thailand and Cambodia is getting dramatic.
What happened: Thailand’s PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra is facing calls to step down after seemingly criticizing the Thai military in a leaked phone call with Cambodia’s former PM. The two were discussing a border skirmish last month in which a Cambodian soldier was killed.
- In response, Shinawatra’s coalition government has lost its biggest party, and could soon lose another.
- If she loses her majority and is voted out, there are concerns that a military coup could step into the power vacuum and take over — coups are a recurring issue in Thailand.
Big picture: While fighting between Thailand and Cambodia has stopped for now, some observers worry the long-running border dispute could eventually lead to a full-blown war.
- In the meantime, the two bickering sides have resorted to other measures to prod each other. Thailand has imposed new border restrictions, while Cambodia has ceased imports of Thai fruits and veggies and banned Thai movies and soap operas.
Why it matters: As Canada tries to bolster ties in the Indo-Pacific region, Thailand and Cambodia are two top targets for increased trade. In fact, Canada sent a delegation to both countries just a few weeks ago. Advancing commerce during unstable times would be tough.
Bottom line: Neither managing a new relationship with a military dictator nor dealing with a trade bloc thrown into disarray as two of its members go to war would be easy for Canada to navigate.—QH