Remember the by-election defeat that was the beginning of the end for Justin Trudeau as Canada’s prime minister? Well, across the pond, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer may have just been dealt a similar blow.
What happened: The Labour Party finished a distant third in a by-election for a constituency that is typically one of its strongholds. Two insurgent populist parties — the left-wing Greens, who won the seat, and right-wing Reform UK — outpaced them.
The result has already prompted calls among Labour MPs for Starmer to give up the party’s leadership, with one colleague referring to him as an “interim prime minister” who “will not be here for very long.”
Catch up: The defeat is the capstone of a stunning reversal of fortunes for Starmer, who was elected prime minister in a historic landslide less than two years ago.
Since then, Starmer has presided over the steady erosion of support for his party. Labour has trailed Reform in the polls for nearly a year and is now neck-and-neck with the Greens.
Starmer’s personal approval numbers are in even worse shape: 75% of voters disapprove of his performance, according to YouGov. Only Liz Truss (remember her?) was less popular.
Why it matters: Labour’s collapse has vaulted Nigel Farage’s Reform UK into pole position to win the next UK election. It’s possible that Farage — who has been a vocal supporter of Donald Trump — would be less receptive to Canada’s plans to forge a closer economic and military relationship.
What’s next: Starmer’s premiership now seems doomed to come to an ignominious end, if not in the coming weeks then likely after a round of upcoming local elections in which Labour is expected to face another walloping.—TS