The line between investing and gambling is getting blurrier in Canada.
What happened: Wealthsimple is launching its own prediction markets app, Wealthsimple Predict, in partnership with U.S.-based Kalshi, marking one of the first times that real-world event trading will be offered in Canada (at least legally).
Wealthsimple has only received permission from Canadian regulators to offer contracts tied to economic indicators, climate events, and financial markets. The most popular markets, like politics and sports, are still banned.
The standalone app, which offers almost 4,000 markets, will be available to non-Wealthsimple customers as well.
Why it matters: The popularity of prediction markets has exploded over the last year — trading volume on Kalshi alone has more than tripled to US$178 billion between last November and this May. Wealthsimple’s entrance into the space — and Canadian regulators seemingly warming to the industry — is a sign that this type of trading is here to stay.
Yes, but: Canada might not be opening the floodgates to sports or politics (yet), but even the economic markets, like inflation data releases or interest rate decisions, can be vulnerable to insider trading.
One recent high-profile example of insider trading on a benign subject is the Google engineer who made $1.2 million by wagering on the most Googled people of 2025.
Our take: Canadians who want to bet on the unregulated markets can easily do so on Polymarket or Kalshi with a VPN. That grey market could provide Wealthsimple and other brokerages a ready-made argument to convince regulators to expand the markets they can offer.—LA
