Violent ripple effects were felt across Mexico yesterday following Sunday’s killing of Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes by Mexican law enforcement.
Driving the news: El Mencho was the leader of the powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel and died during a capture operation. His death sparked retaliation from the cartel, which set up roadblocks in at least 20 states and launched attacks that, as of writing, resulted in the deaths of at least 25 National Guard members. Thankfully, no civilian deaths were reported.
Why it matters: The situation has calmed down measurably, but a Canadian travel advisory is still in place, with Global Affairs Canada registering 26,305 Canadians in the country as of yesterday morning. Canadian airlines that cancelled flights to the most affected region should resume service soon.
The incident could lead some vacationers to reconsider upcoming March break travel plans, especially considering Jalisco state — which is home to the popular resort destinations Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta — was the epicentre of the violence.
Big picture: Cartel drug trafficking has been a large hurdle in the U.S.-Mexico tariff talks, with Donald Trump even threatening to send troops into Mexico to “take out” the cartels, à la January’s raid in Venezuela. With the U.S. reacting positively to the El Mencho operation, Mexico could be motivated to pursue more anti-cartel actions to get in Trump’s good books.
Bottom line: It remains unclear what the long-term impact of El Mencho’s death might be. It could create a power vacuum that Mexican and U.S. authorities are able to take advantage of. On the other hand, it could also lead to a spike in indiscriminate narco-terrorism and a violent succession struggle.—QH