The U.S. and NATO could be hurtling toward a divorce.
Driving the news: President Donald Trump said he’s weighing pulling the U.S. out of NATO, telling the Telegraph in an interview the 32-member defence bloc that the U.S. presides over is a “paper tiger” and that an exit plan is “beyond reconsideration.”
Trump has long been a NATO critic and has lately voiced frustration that bloc members refused to back the U.S. in its ongoing war with Iran.
How it works: Exiting NATO is surprisingly simple. Through Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty, the U.S. would send a “notice of denunciation” announcing its intention to leave (funnily enough, it would first have to send the notice to itself). Then, after a one-year waiting period, it would be free to go. Where things would get complicated is approving the exit.
In 2023, U.S. lawmakers passed legislation making it so any presidential decision to exit NATO must either win a two-thirds supermajority approval in the Senate or be passed through an act of Congress. Both of these scenarios are currently unlikely.
Yes, but: Trump could steamroll this safeguard by claiming presidential power over foreign policy (a tactic he’s used before) and citing a 2020 opinion from the Department of Justice's Office of Legal Counsel concluding that the prez has exclusive power over treaty withdrawal.
This unilateral action could lead to a legal challenge — either from Congress, the Senate, or other concerned parties — setting up a complicated court battle.
And even if a withdrawal was successfully blocked, Trump could pull support from NATO in other ways, either by withdrawing U.S. troops or ignoring commitments.
Why it matters: Without the U.S., NATO would become a shadow of its former self. This would force members, like Canada, to take a hard look at how well-prepared they are to defend themselves and supercharge already existing plans to boost military spending.—QH
