Catholics — and fans of the Oscar-winning hit Conclave — are awaiting a big decision.
What happened: Pope Francis died yesterday at age 88. He was the first pope from South America and left his mark on the Catholic Church by taking relatively liberal stances on controversial issues like climate change and LGBTQ+ rights.
- In 2022, Francis became the first pope to visit Canada in 20 years. During the trip, he made a historic apology for the Church’s role in the residential school system.
Why it matters: The Catholic Church will soon have a new pope, and there’s a decent shot that it could be a Canadian. Per the X account Papability Index (@pope_predictor) — which claims to use an algorithm to measure papal electability — Cardinal Gérald Lacroix, the archbishop of Québec, currently has the second-best odds of taking charge of the Vatican.
- Lacroix ascended after his appointment to the pope’s council of cardinal advisers in 2023. He could garner votes from cardinals who want someone who would carry on Francis’s initiatives but be “more predictable,” per the National Catholic Reporter.
- His candidacy could be hindered by a sexual abuse accusation that forced him to step down for six months. However, a probe found no evidence of any wrongdoing.
Big picture: A Canadian pope would be fitting. Even as support for the Church has flagged globally, its standing has held relatively steady in Canada. It’s the nation’s largest denomination, and has been bolstered in recent years by a surge of Catholic immigrants.
Zoom out: Another major candidate is Cardinal Luis Tagle of the Philippines, a confidant of Francis, who is third in the Papability Index. Meanwhile, Cardinal Pietro Parolin of Italy is the Polymarket fave; he could win over moderate, Italian-centric papal voters.—QH