Americans voted, and they elected Donald Trump to a second term as president.
What happened: Donald Trump swept key swing states, including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Georgia to win election as the 47th president of the United States — the first person to do so for non-consecutive terms in 120 years.
- Republicans also took control of the Senate and appeared on track to retain their hold over the House of Representatives.
Why it matters for Canada: Trump’s election introduces a big ol’ dash of chaos into the relationship between Canada and the U.S., starting with the threat of across-the-board tariffs that could hit Canada hard.
- Trump’s promise of 10% tariffs on all imports into the U.S. would subtract $7 billion from Canada’s GDP and cost around 20,000 jobs, according to analysis by BDC.
- Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, and New Brunswick — provinces where U.S. trade accounts for a significant portion of GDP — would be hit particularly hard, according to the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.
Wait, there’s more: Trump has also promised to negotiate the CUSMA trade agreement, and is likely to push for more concessions than he extracted from Canada during the first round of negotiations.
- Trump will also ramp up pressure on Canada to almost double defence spending to hit the target of 2% of GDP required of NATO members.
- And on immigration, Trump’s promise to begin mass deportations of undocumented people in the U.S. could trigger a rush of migrants to Canada — something that already happened during Trump’s first term on a much smaller scale at the Roxham Road border crossing.
Bottom line: Canada has faced the uncertainty of Donald Trump in the White House before, and we’re about to do it again. —TS