Albertans have overwhelmingly rejected a referendum on separation.
What happened: With more than 1.5 million ballots counted, 76% of voters had opted against holding a binding referendum on the province leaving Canada.
Around 40% of polls have still yet to report as of 3 a.m. MT (5 a.m. ET), but the remain side was winning by large margins in most parts of the province. The pro-referendum side was leading in only one riding, Central Peace-Notley, with 51% support.
On the other nine: Results were much tighter — and turnout lower — on the other nine questions.
Questions about Alberta taking more control over immigration and limiting the availability of public services for non-permanent residents appeared to be earning the approval of around 60% of voters.
Voters were more evenly split on reopening the Constitution to increase provincial powers in various ways, with the vote so far split closer to 50-50.
Why it matters: The result — and the margin of victory, if it holds as all ballots are eventually counted — is a blow to Alberta’s separatists, who were hoping for a tighter result to give their cause greater credibility.
Mitch Sylvestre, the leader of the separatist Alberta Prosperity Project, had said he expected 40% to 65% support for the referendum option, a target that he now appears almost certain to miss.
Zoom out: The outcome could spell trouble for Smith’s United Conservative Party (UCP). Separatists account for a large share of its membership, and there are early indications they may now opt to split from the party.
Jeffrey Rath, an Alberta Prosperity Project leader, blamed non-separatist parts of the UCP for the poor showing: “We do not want to have a party where two-thirds of its members or more are in favour of independence [but] being led by a federalist who is in bed with Rachel Notley, Naheed Nenshi, Mark Carney [and] all the rest of the socialists and globalists,” he told CBC.
Our take: Separatism in Alberta has existed for a long time and isn’t going to disappear now. But if this margin of victory holds for the remain side, the result is a major setback for people who want to split up Canada.
