Other than theatrically screaming at each other during Question Period, floor crossing has become Parliament’s new favourite pastime.
What happened: Conservative MP Matt Jeneroux has crossed the floor to join the Liberal caucus, the third Conservative to jump ship in the last few months. Jeneroux announced in November that he would resign his Edmonton Riverbend seat, but never officially stepped down.
He joins Nova Scotia MP Chris d'Entremont and Toronto-area MP Michael Ma, who both crossed the floor to join the Liberals late last year.
Why it matters: The Conservative defections put Carney’s government on the doorstep of a majority. With three seats currently vacant in the House of Commons, the Liberals’ path to a majority rides and dies with an upcoming byelection in the Quebec riding of Terrebonne (unless, of course, another opposition MP joins the government).
Of the three open seats, two are Liberal strongholds that were won by 30-40 point margins. The Terrebonne riding, on the other hand, has been represented by a Bloc Québécois MP since 1993, with the exception of a brief turn to the NDP in 2011’s “Orange Crush.”
Zoom in: The Terrebonne race came down to one vote in last year’s election, leading the Supreme Court to annul the results and set the stage for a byelection. Polling aggregator 338Canada gives the Liberal a 40% chance of winning the race, although the party’s overall approval ratings have skyrocketed following Carney’s Davos speech.
Bottom line: If the Liberals lose Terrebonne and can’t sway any more Conservatives to cross the floor, the chances of Carney calling an early election this spring certainly grow.—LA