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Spiralling

War in Iran intensifies, AI gets blamed for more layoffs.

ByTaylor Scollon & Lucas Arender

Mar 2, 2026

Good morning. We enjoy McDonald’s from time to time, but does its CEO? A new video suggests the answer is no, not really.

In a thoroughly unappetizing teaser published ahead of the launch of the new Big Arch burger in the U.S., McD’s head honcho Chris Kempczinski takes the tiniest bite imaginable of what he calls the “delicious product,” before declaring it is “distinctively McDonald's” and promising to finish the rest off-camera.

We’ve never been more certain of anything: there’s no way he ate the rest of that burger.

Today’s reading time is 5½ minutes.

MARKETS

▼ TSX

34,339.99

-0.47%


▼ S&P 500

6,878.88

-0.43%


▼ DOW JONES

48,977.92

-1.05%


▼ NASDAQ

22,668.21

-0.92%


▲ GOLD

5,412.3

+3.13%


▲ OIL

72.17

+7.68%


▼ CAD/USD

0.73

-0.08%


▼ BTC/USD

66,294.8

-0.11%


Earnings to watch: Chipmaker Broadcom, which is now the 10th most valuable public company in the world, will hold its earnings call on Wednesday, while Costco will follow up with its results on Thursday.

WORLD

Oil prices soar as war in Iran spreads

Source: Shutterstock.

The war in Iran that began over the weekend is spiralling into a deadly regional conflict.

Catch up: The U.S. and Israel launched a wave of intensive attacks against Iran beginning on Saturday, striking targets across the country and killing the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

  • Iran retaliated by launching drone and missile attacks against Israel and U.S. allies in the region, including Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait.

  • Hezbollah joined the fight yesterday, firing rockets at Israel, which responded by striking Beirut.

  • The death toll is climbing: more than 550 have been killed in Iran, 31 in Lebanon, at least 10 in Israel, three in the UAE, and one in Kuwait. Three American service members have also been killed.

The economic impact: The price of oil rose as much as 13% yesterday before giving back some of its gains. Natural gas prices in Europe were up nearly 25%. Meanwhile, stocks fell as markets opened in Asia and Europe.

  • Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz off Iran’s coast — a vital artery that carries around 20% of the global oil trade — ground to a halt and Iran targeted energy infrastructure in the region.

  • Analysts predict that the price of a barrel of oil could eventually rise to anywhere from $80 to more than $100, depending on how long the strait remains effectively closed.

For Canada: While higher oil prices may be positive for Canada’s energy sector in the short term, this sort of disruption to the supply of oil could do serious damage to the global economy — and Canada wouldn’t be immune. 

  • More expensive oil will likely strengthen the loonie while slowing growth, particularly in Asia, which depends heavily on Gulf crude. Both dynamics would reduce demand for Canadian exports.

  • Inflation could also re-emerge, as higher energy prices make it more expensive to produce and transport just about everything.

What’s next: Donald Trump said he is prepared to open talks with Iranian officials, but added in a separate interview that he expected the war to continue for another “four to five weeks.”—TS

BIG PICTURE

Source: Shutterstock.

The Pentagon swapped Anthropic out for OpenAI. The U.S. Defense Department reached a deal to use OpenAI’s models, just hours after it cut ties with rival Anthropic and banned them from doing business with any entity connected to the U.S. military. The Pentagon’s rift with Anthropic centred around ethical red lines for how its models could be used in military operations. The startup voiced concerns about AI being used for mass domestic surveillance and the development of autonomous weapons. (Semafor)

Some suspiciously well-timed Polymarket bets on the Iran strikes paid off big. Six accounts on the prediction market platform — all of which were created within the last month and have only wagered on the timing of U.S. strikes — netted ~$1 million in profit betting on the U.S. to strike Iran by Feb. 28, raising suspicions of insider trading. (Bloomberg)

Your morning cup of joe is due to get a little cheaper. After years of bad weather, Brazil — the world’s largest coffee producer — is forecasting a record-breaking crop of beans this season. Coffee prices have almost doubled since 2020 thanks to the weather, but with this season's turnaround, java prices at the grocery store are finally expected to fall. (BNN Bloomberg) 

📡 What else is on our radar: 

  • Chinese AI startup DeepSeek is releasing its new model this week. It’s the first major release since its original model rattled markets over its cost efficiency last year.

  • Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, who has been in hiding since the 2024 election, says she will return to the country in the next few weeks.

  • Canadian legal tech firm Clio will start offering loans to law firms.

LOOKOUT

What’s happening this week

🇮🇳 Carney to meet Modi. Prime Minister Mark Carney is meeting India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi today as part of a reset of Canada’s diplomatic relationship with the world’s most populous country. On Carney’s agenda: closing a US$2.8 billion deal to supply India with uranium, finding new buyers for Canadian gas, and making progress on a broader free trade agreement that the government hopes to complete by year’s end.

🤖 Altman goes to Ottawa. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman will travel to Ottawa for a meeting with federal officials, including AI minister Evan Solomon, to discuss safety guardrails in ChatGPT in the wake of the Tumbler Ridge shooting. Solomon said last week that measures announced by OpenAI were insufficient and that “all options remain on the table” when it comes to regulating AI platforms.

📊 An important jobs report in the U.S. Forecasters expect Friday’s jobs report to show the unemployment rate in the U.S. ticking up slightly, but not by enough to push the Federal Reserve to resume cutting interest rates — particularly with the war in Iran adding to inflation risks. A bigger-than-expected increase in joblessness, however, will certainly amp up pressure on the Fed to consider a cut in April.

BUSINESS

The Block party is over

Source: Koshiro K / Shutterstock.

Jack Dorsey saw the Substack-induced AI panic last week and said hold my beer. 

Driving the news: U.S. tech firm Block announced it is laying off 4,000 workers — nearly half its workforce — with CEO Jack Dorsey pointing directly to improvements in AI tools as the reason for the cuts. Block’s stock jumped 16% following the news. 

Why it matters: A couple of years ago, layoffs of this scale would have been a PR nightmare. Now, job cuts are largely celebrated by investors — as long as they’re attributed to AI.

  • A recent report found that companies cited AI as the reason for over 50,000 layoffs in 2025, despite little evidence that roles were actually being replaced by the tech. The trend has been dubbed “AI-washing.”

  • In the case of Block, at least some of the layoffs may be less about AI and more about trimming a bloated workforce. The company tripled its staff between 2019 and 2022 to over 12,000 people — Dorsey even admitted last week that they overhired during the pandemic. 

Our take: AI isn’t ready to step in and replace all of these jobs today, but companies like Block are casting upstream with layoffs, anticipating that in the not-so-distant future they’ll need a fraction of the headcount to accomplish the same amount of work (if not more).—LA

ONE BIG NUMBER

✈️ US$62 million. Cash that fell out of the sky in Bolivia after an airplane — carrying 17 million banknotes — crashed. Bolivian authorities quickly tried to destroy the currency, but it's estimated that ~30% of the cash was taken by locals in the city of El Alto.

PEAK PICKS

  • Wondering where to invest money in the stock market? We’re thinking long-term and issuing a double down buy alert on these stocks. Get the details here!*

  • The healthiest types of bread, according to a nutritionist.

  • The Spice Girls sent a cease-and-desist to a 22-year-old Canadian entrepreneur over her “SPYCE GIRLZ” food seasoning brand.

  • Advice for talking to kids about money (Globe and Mail, paywalled).

  •  Why Gen Z is itching to get back to the office.

  • Read: The story of a hockey dad, a drug cartel, and a $12 million fraud scheme.

  • Nine Canadian chefs share their food trend predictions for this year.

  • Watch: An inside look at how a Broadway show runs.

*Sponsored Content

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