South Korea and the U.S. wrapped up their annual Ulchi Freedom Shield military exercise yesterday. The joint drills have been going on, under one name or another, since 1976, but this year’s edition marked a potential turning point for the future of military cooperation between the two allies. Just days before the exercise began, U.S. President Donald Trump unilaterally announced it would take a "substantially" reduced form compared to previous years — it ultimately ended six days earlier than originally scheduled.
In (where else?) a Truth Social post, Trump cited his “very good relationship” with North Korea’s supreme leader Kim Jong Un as the basis for the decision, implying that the drills are an unnecessary provocation of a country that during Trump’s presidencies has been “unthreatening and respectful.” That’s an interesting stance to take considering North Korea has continued to deepen its military ties with Russia and continues to run ballistic missile tests. In fact, just this past Thursday, North Korea fired as many as 10 short-range ballistic missiles — its 12th such test this year.
So, where does this leave things for South Korea? Well, following Trump’s move, President Lee Jae Myung made his own announcement, saying he intended to accelerate the country’s push for full control of its military. Ever since the outbreak of the Korean War — which ended in 1953 with an armistice, not a peace treaty, meaning South and North Korea are technically still at war — the U.S. has retained the authority to direct South Korea’s armed forces if active conflict resumes (which is kinda crazy tbh). Drills this week were, in part, meant to confirm that South Korea was ready to assume this control. While the sudden downsizing certainly casts plenty of uncertainty over how much the U.S. is willing to stick up for South Korea, it could actually help clear the path to military sovereignty.
There could, if you search hard enough, be another hidden upside for South Korea here. Trump claims he is trying to sit down for a face-to-face meeting with Kim during his next visit to Asia, which is likely happening in November. While Trump doesn’t exactly have a deft political touch, and we wouldn’t put any money on any major breakthroughs, the talks could result in more open diplomatic communications between the U.S. and North Korea. South Korea could then potentially slide in through the backdoor, using the U.S. as a channel to get its message of peaceful conciliation through even as North Korea has increasingly closed off diplomatic discussions. This sounds well and good, until you also hear that Kim’s sister denied that Trump was in touch with North Korea and said the country was “uninterested” in Trump’s scaling down of joint military actions. Oh well!
The biggest concern stemming from all of this lies beyond just the Korean Peninsula. The truncated military exercise marks yet another retrenchment by the U.S. away from alignment with its allies. While Trump claimed his relationship with Kim was the primary motive for the move, he also mentioned two other factors: the costliness of the exercises and South Korea’s refusal to aid in the war in Iran. This fits into a broader pattern by the White House of harping on inadequate spending by allies and punitive retribution for not providing full-throated support of its actions in the Middle East. For these allies, the message that they might need to look elsewhere — or look inward — for future support is ringing loud and clear.
