Last week, the people of Iceland voted to reject a government proposal that would have reopened European Union accession talks. The tiny Nordic nation originally launched its bid to join the EU in 2009, looking for some pan-continental economic fortification in the wake of the global financial crisis. However, a eurosceptic government put a pause on it just four years later. Now, a narrow, but definitive, 52.8% of voters chose “no” in a referendum that animated the citizenry — 82.5% of voting-age people turned out to the polls, more than in the country’s last federal election — and put hopes of Iceland joining the bloc to bed for the foreseeable future.
The better-funded and better-mobilized No campaign successfully pushed a major talking point to the forefront: fishing. EU members have to abide by the bloc’s Common Fisheries Policy, which unilaterally sets fishing quotas and fleet sizes. For most of the EU, this isn’t a big issue, with fishing contributing on average less than 1% of the bloc’s gross domestic product. That’s not the case for Iceland, where fishing is one of the largest economic sectors, accounting for 15% of GDP and no less than 40% of export revenue. While the EU indicated that it would be willing to come up with some potential carve-outs for Iceland on the matter, this was not enough to assuage fears of industry harms which — when paired with a healthy dose of nationalism — did in accession talks.
As for potential benefits, many Icelanders also felt the EU didn’t have enough to offer. Iceland is already a member of the European Economic Area (EEA) and Schengen passport-free travel area, meaning it already enjoys mostly free trade and free travel with the EU (and already accepts many of its governing policies). Bumping that ‘mostly’ up to ‘entirely' wasn't that great an incentive. Perhaps more damning for the EU was that its offer of enhanced military security — including the ‘we’ve got your back if you get attacked’ mutual defence clause — didn’t do more to move voters in a country without a standing army. Especially considering Iceland is a country located in increasingly contested Arctic waters and is next door to Greenland, the Danish territory that the U.S. has repeatedly made overtures about annexing.
Though the federal government was on the Yes side of the debate, it now seems ready to build up security reassurances through other means. "We didn't vote away the geopolitical situation," Iceland's Foreign Affairs Minister Thorgerdur Gunnarsdóttir told Reuters, “it's still there and we will have to find other ways to increase our security.” Among the nations she name-checked as important partners was Canada. Indeed, in July, Iceland became the fifth member to join the Maritime Security Partnership, founded by Canada, Germany, and Norway last year as a way to enhance cooperation and interoperability in Arctic waters. And last December, Iceland’s and Canada’s coast guards signed a pact to increase cooperation.
As for the EU, getting the cold shoulder hits hard. Iceland is the exact type of nation the bloc would love to welcome — small, wealthy, and having already achieved many of the policies necessary for membership that other EU candidates have had trouble meeting. The shine has already come off the bloc in recent years, but this rejection could leave it duller than ever.
