An abnormally warm stretch of the Pacific Ocean could translate into higher prices at the grocery store.
Driving the news: Scientists are warning that this year’s El Niño — the periodic warming of the Pacific Ocean that disrupts global weather patterns — could be the most powerful on record. The so-called super El Niño threatens to spark more floods, wildfires, and food inflation.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s most recent update pegs the odds of a "very strong" El Niño at 81% for the October to December window and a 97% chance that it carries through to early spring 2027.
Why it matters: Global food supply chains are already in turmoil from the war in Iran, which has led to energy and fertilizer shortages. Analysts say even a modest crop disruption — like one a record-setting El Niño will likely cause — could cause a run-up in food prices that lasts through 2028, according to Goldman Sachs economists.
Climate-risk analytics firm Risilience estimates that a severe El Niño could lead to US$342 billion in lost agricultural output globally.
Depending on the product, prices are expected to increase by 10% to 100%. Particularly exposed crops like rice, sugar, and coffee will likely see the biggest surges.
In Canada: Milder temperatures and drier winter conditions caused by a super El Niño will also likely increase wildfire risks — not something anyone wants to contemplate right now.—LA
