Long goodbye

Markets: Canada’s main stock index rose to a three-week high yesterday as investor hopes were lifted by Donald Trump saying the U.S. could be “out of Iran pretty quickly.” Elsewhere, shares in Canadian clothier Groupe Dynamite fell despite posting a slight earnings beat.

The U.S. and NATO could be hurtling toward a divorce.

Driving the news: President Donald Trump said he’s weighing pulling the U.S. out of NATO, telling the Telegraph in an interview the 32-member defence bloc that the U.S. presides over is a “paper tiger” and that an exit plan is “beyond reconsideration.” 

How it works: Exiting NATO is surprisingly simple. Through Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty, the U.S. would send a “notice of denunciation” announcing its intention to leave (funnily enough, it would first have to send the notice to itself). Then, after a one-year waiting period, it would be free to go. Where things would get complicated is approving the exit. 

Yes, but: Trump could steamroll this safeguard by claiming presidential power over foreign policy (a tactic he’s used before) and citing a 2020 opinion from the Department of Justice's Office of Legal Counsel concluding that the prez has exclusive power over treaty withdrawal.

Why it matters: Without the U.S., NATO would become a shadow of its former self. This would force members, like Canada, to take a hard look at how well-prepared they are to defend themselves and supercharge already existing plans to boost military spending.—QH

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SpaceX files for record-breaking IPO. The Elon Musk-owned company, which is now composed of SpaceX, xAI, and the social media platform X, has filed to go public, setting the stage for a record-setting US$1.75 trillion IPO. The public offering is expected to raise $75 billion, which would handily beat the current record of $29 billion set by Saudi Aramco in 2019. SpaceX could be the first of several major tech IPOs this year, with both OpenAI and Anthropic eying their own forays into public markets. (TechCrunch)

Stellantis is in talks to build Chinese EVs at its Canadian plant. The automaker is in discussions with Ottawa and its Chinese partner, Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology, to manufacture EVs at its idle plant in Brampton, Ont. Prime Minister Mark Carney reached a deal with Beijing in January to allow some made-in-China EVs into Canada and signalled a willingness to allow Chinese investment in the auto sector. (Bloomberg News)

The Artemis II mission began with a successful launch. Despite some minor hiccups earlier in the day, the 32-story rocket blasted off from the Kennedy Space Centre just after 6:30 p.m. Eastern carrying its four crew members, including Canadian Jeremy Hansen, entering a stable orbit and beginning its 10-day journey around the moon. (CBC News)

📡 What else is on our radar: 

A hotly anticipated seven-year analysis of over 3,900 social science papers has concluded, and the results are shocking. For half of the papers under review, researchers were unable to replicate their findings. The studies spanned fields ranging from economics to psychology.

Why it matters: The study goes a long way toward confirming what many researchers already knew: that there is a reproducibility crisis in science right now — and one that goes beyond just the social science fields. The root cause of the issue isn’t misconduct or shoddy work, but a failure to provide enough details. Still, when paired with the rising tide of AI-generated academic papers, it’s enough to make anyone question many research claims.

Forget free lunch on Fridays, if your company isn’t supplying you with bottomless nicotine, do they really care about you? 

Driving the news: Palantir and a slew of other tech companies have begun stocking their offices with vending machines full of free nicotine pouches, an increasingly popular cigarette alternative that many tech workers insist can improve their productivity. 

Catch-up: Nicotine pouches’ popularity has skyrocketed over the past few years, particularly with young men, many of whom have been sold on the (unsubstantiated) promise that they can give you a boost of focus at work or the gym.

Why it matters: Despite Ottawa’s crackdown, these pouches have become a new generation’s cigarettes. One study in Quebec found that young people’s usage of nicotine pouches is now nearly on par with cigarette smoking. 

Zoom out: There’s been a push from Conservatives to make pouches easier to buy in Canada. In September, Conservative MP Brad Vis tabled a petition in the House of Commons to return them to stores, while his fellow MP Jamil Javani has posted (seemingly unironic) videos of himself popping a pouch in his mouth, saying “Free the Zyn.”—LA

💰 US$1.2 trillion. Total value of the 22 mega mergers and acquisitions completed in the first quarter — a record high. Dealmaking in the U.S. led the pack, with ~$630 billion worth of transactions taking place in the first three months of the year.

You deserve a little treat, so play today’s mini-crossword, the daily sudoku, Codebreaker, and Who’s Who!